Predicting the final outcome of a major league season is nearly impossible.  For example, who could have imagine the turnaround engineered by Jim Leyland in Detroit in his first year at the helm.  Everyone had  picked the White Sox to repeat in that division, but no one foresaw the breakdown in their pitching staff and the fall off of Mark Buehrle. 

It is easy and safe to pick the Yankees to repeat, with all the talent they have but the final test in the playoffs was very revealing – a team of all stars that had not come together as a team and the hesitant play of future hall of famer, Alex Rodriguez.   And don’t forget, Boston was running away with that division until the dog days of August when they disappeared into the doghouse, a departure precipitated by the injury to team captain and starting catcher, Jason Varitek.

Certainly no one would have predicted back to back NL West titles for the San Diego Padres last year, and now they have a new manager, a new centerfielder, traded away their second baseman, a viable rookie of the year candidate last year.  Continuity in baseball seems to be an anachronism at times, but one would have thought on the heels of such success that they would have hung on to their manager.  Go figure.

Last  year I got a couple picks right, choosing the Yankees to win the AL East, the Cards to win the NL Central, and I recognized that the Dodgers would be tough (they were the Wild Card last year, finishing in a virtual tie with the Padres).   I also thought the Giants might be tough, but the deciding factors, as I saw them, did not kick in, ie. pitching consistency and Bonds’ health.

So what will I say about this year?  The Yankees will be tough, again, but their pitching is vulnerable.  The Red Sox could easily beat them over the long haul, depending on DiceK’s success here in the States (I think he will be fantastic), Schilling’s durability and success (I think his season will be mixed, he looks ‘heavy’ in spring training and 40 year old pitchers should not be putting on weight) and Josh Beckett’s consistency.  Their offense will produce.  No one else in this division will compete for very long if at all.

 The AL Central will be decided between the White Sox and Tigers, but never count out the Twins who won it all last year, amazingly enough.  They’ve lost some players, notably Francisco Liriano (injury).  Realistically speaking, these three teams will be competing for the division title.

The AL West has been ceded already to the Angels.  They are strong, as always, and I am guessing the pundits discount the A’s based on ….what?  Their history?  They win, and have one of the best winning percentages over the past few years.  I am guessing their season will ride on Rich Harden’s health.  If he can make 30 starts, they will compete for the title.  If he is relegated to 10-12 starts, they have problems as the loss of Barry Zito will be felt.   If he is healthy, they will not miss Zito and they should be competitive.   Their offense is ok, the adjustment of Piazza to the DH role should go seamlessly but he will NOT produce like Frank Thomas did last year (39 hr).  Don’t count on Bobby Crosby to stay healthy or be a contributing player throughout the season, but thankfully the A’s have hung on to Marco Scutaro, the super sub.   Mark Ellis should have a better season than last year too, as should Eric Chavez (if not now, then when??).   The Angels will be good, have a star in the making at 2b, and a lot of other players who have a known track record of excellence as well as a relief staff that is very deep and very effective. 

The NL East looks interesting.  The Mets are good, have a great line up and some of the most exciting position players in baseball as well as one of the best managers.  But their pitching is suspect and they may be forced to trade their best prospect, Lastings Milledge, who they have been loathe to offer on the market, in order to get the pitching they will need to get over the top.  The Phillies look good as well, but with Jimmy Rollins predicting a title, he has inadvertently put a bulls eye on the back of every Phillies player and the rest of the division will be anxious to shoot them down.  The Braves are older (Chipper Jones is a seasoned veteran fighting the injuries of older age at this point in his career), and they have some new players who will undoubtedly fit in without drawing too much attention to themselves.  They have improved their bullpen by light years so they will undoubtedly be much better than last year.

The NL Central is a toss up.  Who knows where Clemens will sign?  If he goes back to Houston, their pitching will be ok.  If not, they are in trouble with the loss of Pettite.  The Cardinals are always tough with LaRussa and his pitching coach, Dave Duncan, running the show.  They can make any pitcher better and make any team competitive. 

The Cubs?  I am not buying into the value of their improvements aside from the acquisition of Alfonso Soriano.  Their new pitchers (Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis) are ok , but not difference makers.  The Brewers will be improved too, but it all depends on the development of their young players who are just that… young.

The NL West is probably one that will go to the Dodgers if they can avoid injuries (which is a big IF), but they have the personnel, have made all the right moves, and have a fertile farm system that has produced some interesting young players (Jason Repko, James Loney, and their starting catcher, Russell Martin) 

The Giants MAY be competitive, all of which depends on LOTS of things, ie. Bonds’ health, the production of the hitter who is behind him in the order, the health of the pitchers, the still unresolved closer situation as they may still be trying to get rid of Armando Benitez.   Lots of if’s in their situation so don’t bet the house on them.  The Padres will be ok and the young talent in Arizona may surprise some people in the same way the Tigers took everyone by surprise last year.