August is nearly over, and the story lines are start to become truly compelling.  Take the Mets for example.  With one  of the best lineups in all of baseball, with surprisingly good pitching and arguably one of the best managers in the game, they look vulnerable right now.  Having dropped four straight to Philadelphia and clinging to a 2 game lead in the NL East , it is their pitching that is letting them down, and specifically closer Billy Wagner’s complaint of a ‘dead arm’ is significant.  He has blown more than his share of saves lately and the stress of

August is showing.  Jose Reyes is in a slight slump, his average dipping below .300 for the first time this season, while David Wright continues to carry the offense.  But the Phillies are an interesting story.  Chase Utley, their best all around player, was on the DL for a month with a broken hand.  He has returned as if he was never gone, hitting and leading his team to victory after victory with timely hitting.  He leads the league in batting average, still, and he is tied for the league lead in doubles. 

The resurgence of Pat Burrel, the hottest hitter in baseball since the all star break has been literally unbelievable.  This is a guy who the Phillies were desperate to move along with his $13m contract, while he languished on the bench having proven himself to manager Charlie Manuel that he was unable to perform.  Then magically, he regained his stroke, and has raised his average to .270.  From hitting .129 and .179 in May and June, he hit .435 in July and has hit .352 since the all star break with 42 rbi. 

Similarly Ryan Howard found himself slumping, and now he leads the league in rbi and is second in home runs.  The loss of Shane Vicotorino could have been disastrous, but Jason Werth has filled in admirably, hitting .392 upon his recall from the minors in August with 18 rbi.  And the deadline acquisition of Tadahito Iguchi has proven to be invaluable with timely hits and an overall .292 batting average for the Phils as they awaited the return of MVP candidate Utley from the disabled list.

This is a team that has caught lightening in a bottle, that same lightening that the Braves thought they had caught with the acquisition of Mark Texeira from the Rangers.  He has done nothing to disappoint, anchoring an offense along with Chipper Jones, but clearly there are problems in Atlanta.  Their pitching, aside from Tim Hudson and John Smoltz is iffy and jettisoning their closer, Bob Wickman, at this stage of the season does not

bode well.  Apparently he objected to being used in non save situations and they just threw him away, and no one has offered to pick up his contract, an interesting situation given the dearth of pitching at the major league level.   Trailing the Phillies by 2 1⁄2 games does not bode well for the Braves playoff hopes, though they are obviously still in the hunt with the Phillies traveling to Atlanta for a three game series this weekend.

The Mariners find themselves in unfamiliar territory, looking up in the Wild Card race in the AL, trailing the Yankees.  Now Derek Jeter can relax and look reporters in the eye and tell them he is pleased so far with their season. As long as he has been the starting shortstop for the Bronx Bombers, he has not missed a playoff appearance!  Chien-Ming Wang is quietly putting together another Cy Young candidate season, with a 16-6 record with a 3.79 era.  And he was 3-4 at the end of May, nursing injury and attempting to regain the form he displayed last year in a break out season when he was 19-6 with a 3.63 era.  Clearly he is very real and if not for Mike Mussina’s apparent demise and ineffectual pitching, the Yankees might be in complete

command of their season and a playoff berth.  But they have to deal with Seattle which has lost six straight on the heels of a five game winning streak.  Their schedule is torturous, and their lineup is untested in many ways, though very talented.  They have not really been through this before, except for Ichiro.  And carrying a .207 hitting Ritchie Sexson does them no good, though finally Adrian Beltre, their other high priced free agent acquisition of two years ago, is finally beginning to pay off (.283 BA, 20 hr, 80 rbi).  It is their pitching that must carry the load, and it is their relief corps that has picked up what is quite an average starting rotation.  Arms become tired in August, just ask Billy Wagner, and the Mariners are finding it difficult to hold leads that were once assured once the starters came out of the game.

The Tigers are in trouble.  Gary Sheffield is on the DL and the middle of their lineup is not as formidable without him.  Their pitching is still good, but has not dominated as it did last year but finally Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney have returned to the bull pen and should provide some stability in the 7^th and 8^th innings. Closer Todd Jones’ 4.47 era is nothing to brag about but he does have 33 saves. 

The rest of the pitchers (Jason Grilli -5.08 era, Andrew Miller – 5.63 era, Kenny Rogers – 5.23 era, Jeremy Bonderman -4.72 era, 11-7) have not duplicated the magic seen last year and without these pitchers returning to form, the Tigers will find it difficult to overcome a talented Cleveland offensive lineup that is not real strong in pitching either (10^th in the AL in runs allowed, though 6^th in era).

The NL Central is an interesting race as well, with the Cubs playing with magic, leading the division by 2 ½ games over the Brewers and 3 over the Cardinals.  And Arizona clings to a 1 game lead over the Padres who have the best overall pitching in the league by far (a 3.59 era compared to 2^nd place Chicago at 4.00)  Arizona is not lacking in pitching but their efforts are

clearly the result of the sum of the parts being greater than the whole; their young position players are contributing in a timely manner, their closer leads the league with 40 saves and they are surprising everyone.  The Padres, after all, won this division last year, so their performance is not a surprise but clearly the acquisition of free agent pitcher, Greg Maddux, was a sagacious move.

For those with the tenacity to follow these races through to conclusion, get set for a wonderful month of September in what will undoubtedly be some very hotly contested races to the end.